Collector Car Market Stands to Gain from Latest Economic Meltdown
Monterey and Beyond:
A Prediction for the Collector Car Market
(By: Bryan W. Shook, Esquire)
717-884-9010
With the Monterey Auctions only two weeks away, the eyes of the Collector Car Market are on Wall Street and other world markets.
Gold has surpassed Platinum, S&P has downgraded the United States credit rating from AAA to AA and the stock market is plummeting. How could this possibly be beneficial to the collector car market, you ask … it’s simple. The stock market, the bond market, the futures and other typical investment arenas are subject to the debt crisis. While the Collector Car Market is, in a sense subject to the debt crisis, but not nearly to the extent that the traditional markets are.
This economy is somewhat of a double-edged sword. On one hand, the current debt crisis has undoubtedly caused more than a few cars to come to market, but on the other hand as investors seek safe havens from the latest market crash the world of collector cars looks like a better and safer investment market every day. Collectors invest in automobiles because of emotion, artistic adoration and quite simply, memories. A tangible investment is much easier to quantify than a stock certificate and the same is not as susceptible to the tumultuous economic climate we live in today.
Last year’s $172,000,000.00 in sales will likely be eclipsed this year as investors clamor for the many of the blue chip collectible automobiles that the several major auction houses are going to parade across the block.
Don’t be surprised to see a plethora of domestic and foreign collectors alike flock to Monterey, cash in hand to buy up the consigned cars. Monterey has, for years been THE PLACE to sell your high-dollar, blue chip car … this year the money will be there more than ever.
Thank you to Standard and Poor and all of the world’s economies responsible for this latest turmoil.
Attorney Bryan W. Shook is a devoted automotive enthusiast, but is also an experience litigator who devotes a large portion of his law practice to helping other collectors and hobbyists understand today’s market. Attorney Bryan Shook is available throughout the United States for consultation, advice, and information. If you’d like more information about this topic or would like to speak with Attorney Bryan W. Shook please email him at bshook@shooklegal.com.
Bid with Knowledge; Buy with Confidence – Vintage Car Law
Economics of Car Valuations
The Economics of Vehicle Values
The value of an antique car or a collector vehicle is driven by three key factors: desirability, pedigree/provenance and condition. These three factors fit into an equation which eventually leads to the value of the vehicle. The weight to be assigned to any of the factors is subjectively based upon the influence any one factor has over another.
Let’s take a look at these three factors:
Desirability: Although this is a subjective measure, it is fairly easy to quantify. A desirable vehicle is one that nearly anyone would love to own. Also vehicles that were produced in limited quantities or with attributes or options not commonly found on contemporaneous models are desirable. Exotic vehicles are usually desirable on their name alone. Finally, some vehicles are desirable simply because they are cool. While every vehicle is desirable to a collector on some level (yes, even the Yugo is desirable if you can find a complete and somewhat running example), it is the level of desirability which drives the value. The more people who like the vehicle; the more desirable the vehicle is. Specific years, specific models, or specific options can make an otherwise undesirable or not so desirable vehicle desirable for the purpose of valuation. Keep in mind however, that although desirability drives just one aspect of the pricing structure it can sway the equation completely. A fitting example is a Duesenberg. In any condition, and even without any pedigree or provenance, a Duesenberg will ALWAYS command a relatively high value based purely upon its highly regarded desirability and relatively low production figures. The weight to assign to desirability can also be dependent upon the year, model, options or scarcity of a model.
Pedigree/Provenance: This is where most vehicles are lacking. Time has a way of erasing memories. By and large, information about a vehicle’s origins was not something that was discussed when the vehicles were sold, “back in the day.” Most vehicle owners do not have much information about the vehicle before they acquired it. Therefore, when you come across a vehicle with paperwork or history, dating from new, you are looking at a vehicle with pedigree. Merriam-Webster defines “pedigree” as the origin or history of something. Items that add pedigree are copies of old titles, registration paperwork, original sales forms, window stickers, build sheets, factory documentation, certification, etc.
Provenance is the history of ownership of the vehicle. Vehicles that were once owned by movie stars or other public figures tend to be worth more than other similar vehicles. These same vehicles also tend to have more options or unique features which make them more desirable (see above). Vehicles that have a known, uninterrupted chain of ownership, from new can also be said to have provenance. Nevertheless, the weight assigned to this form of provenance is obviously not the same as the weight assigned to a chain of celebrity ownership or ownership within a large nationally recognized vehicle collection or museum. For provenance to be given appropriate weight, it must be substantiated with documentation.
A vehicle with either pedigree or provenance is worth more than a similar vehicle without. A vehicle with these attributes is sometimes referred to as a “no stories” vehicle.
Condition: This third and final factor is the “make it or break it” for most vehicles. Even if a vehicle has good desirability and pedigree and/or provenance, it likely won’t influence the value of the vehicle as much as condition. A vehicle with in superb original condition (i.e. extremely well-kept since new) or a vehicle which has been restored or built/rebuilt to an extremely high level is worth more than a similar vehicle needing restoration or a similar vehicle in a deteriorated condition. In recent years we have seen a push for original vehicles. As the appreciation for these examples has risen, so has the weight assigned to originality with respect to valuation. (Note: An overwhelming public appreciation for a particular vehicle or vehicle trait tends to also weigh heavily on desirability). The more original a vehicle or the better the restoration of the vehicle, the more the vehicle is worth; period.
Although the equation into which these three areas are plugged is somewhat objective on its face, the weight assigned to any one area is subjectively based upon the knowledge, expertise, and experience of the person assigning the value.
Any attempt to confidently assign a fixed weight to any of these three areas would be illogical. There are far too many vehicles with far too many options, characteristics, stories, and degrees of condition to allow for such a rigid valuation method. Each vehicle must be evaluated first on its own merits and then against similar vehicles with known sales to find a comparable sale. Then the comparable sales must be evaluated to see how closely they match the subject vehicle. The closer the comparable sale, the closer your estimate of value will be to the actual value of the subject vehicle. You must however, keep in mind some principles of economics such as, market saturation versus scarcity, preferences, and rationality (i.e. marginal cost versus marginal benefit).
This theoretical approach to the economics of car valuation should provide you with an understanding of why one vehicle is worth so much more than another. The equation described here should be view as a template which along with the expertise of a seasoned professional will likely allow you to confidently arrive at a value for your particular automobile given the economics discussed herein.
Attorney Bryan W. Shook is a devoted automotive enthusiast, but is also an experience litigator who devotes a large portion of his law practice to helping other collectors and hobbyists understand today’s market. Attorney Bryan Shook is available throughout the United States for consultation, advice, and information. If you’d like more information about this topic or would like to speak with Attorney Bryan W. Shook please email him at BShook@shooklegal.com
Bid with Knowledge; Buy with Confidence – Vintage Automotive, LLC
32nd Annual Spring Carlisle Swap Meet & Collector Car Auction – April 21-26, 2009
32nd Annual Spring Carlisle Swap Meet & Collector Car Auction
By: Bryan W. Shook, Esquire
Email: bshook@shooklegal.com
The 32nd annual Spring Carlisle Swap Meet & Car Corral are about to get underway. Officially the event runs from April 21 through April 26, 2009, but large vendors are starting to arrive today. Carlisle’s swap meet offers what might be the best selection of automotive treasurers of any swap meet in the world. For the automotive faithful that make their annual trek to Mecca, the weather for this year’s Spring Carlisle looks to be better than most years, with forecasted highs in the low to mid 70s and clear skies! I know, the diehards will be depressed … “What no rain, how can it be Carlisle without rain???”
A change for this year’s event is that the Collector Car Auction will be held on Thursday and Friday nights, April 23 & 24, 2009 at the Carlisle Expo Center. Also new for Spring Carlisle is a cruise-in to be held on Sunday at the grandstands. This follows last fall’s successful Sunday cruise-in. I look for several hundred cars to attend.
As for the auction, there are several very appealing lots. With more than 250 vehicles scheduled to cross the auction block, there is certain to be something that appeals to everyone! See you in Carlisle! Http://www.carlisleevents.com.
Attorney Bryan W. Shook is a devoted automotive enthusiast, but is also an experience litigator who devotes a large portion of his law practice to helping other collectors and hobbyists understand today’s market. Attorney Bryan Shook is available throughout the United States for consultation, advice, and information. If you’d like more information about this topic or would like to speak with Attorney Bryan W. Shook please email him at BShook@shooklegal.com.
Bid with knowledge. Buy with confidence. – Vintage Car Law
Let’s Review: Barrett-Jackson – Palm Beach 2009 Collector Car Auction
Let’s Review:
Barrett-Jackson – Palm Beach 2009
By: Bryan W. Shook, Esquire
Email: bshook@shooklegal.com
Well, it’s hard to believe but the 7th Annual Barrett-Jackson Palm Beach Collector Car Auction is behind us.
How did the stars of the auction do?
The top seller of the weekend was Lot Number 369.1 the Super Chevy Magazine feature custom 1969 Chevrolet Camaro RS/SS titled “Project American Heroes”. The Camaro, which included parts supplied by over twenty five major speed parts producers and a legendary LS-series GM 427cu GMMG supplied powerplant, hammered sold for $500,000.00! The proceeds from the sale of the Camaro will go to benefit the Armed Forces Foundation, a truly worthy cause.
Two other stars of the auction with their proceeds going to charity were Lots Nos. 655 and 655.1 the 2004 Ford Mustang GT Convertible concept car and the 2004 Ford Mustang GT Coupe concept car, respectively. These cars debuted in January 2003 at the North American Auto Show and arguably started the current muscle car frenzy amongst the big three. Many people believe that these two concept Mustangs are what raised the ante for General Motors and Chrysler to go all in again and give the public what they want, FUN muscle or muscle-type cars. Ford let these two ponies out of their livery for Charity. Both concepts sold individually for $175,000.00, each, a bargain, any way you slice it. The proceeds from the sale of these two pieces of current American automotive history went straight to the benefit of the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (JDRF). After the bidding for the coupe stalled around $150,000.00, Barrett-Jackson, CEO, Craig Jackson and Barrett-Jackson, President, Steve Davis, big against each other with Mr. Davis eventually taking home the concept car for the very reasonable price of $175,000.00.
The third historic Mustang that Ford auctioned off, was lot number 665, a 2010 Shelby GT500 coupe, the very first available for public sale. The hammer price was $150,000.00 and the proceeds above MSRP for the car went straight to the Carroll Shelby Children’s Foundation.
So, how did my “sleeper” predictions go? Pretty well, but judge for yourselves.
1920 Chevrolet Model T – 1 Ton (open cab) chassis truck (Lot # 678) – Sold $37,400.00
1964 ½ Ford Mustang convertible (Lot #347) – Sold $51,700.00
1972 Chevrolet C10 Cheyenne Short Bed pickup (Lot #32) – Sold $35,200.00
1976 Chevrolet C10 Silverado Long Bed pickup (Lot #330.1) – Sold $29,150.00
1994 Pontiac Trans Am 25th Anniversary Edition Convertible (Lot #58) – Sold $37,950.00
1999 Pontiac Trans Am 30th Anniversary Coupe – Daytona 500 Pace Car (Lot #616.1) – Sold $39,600.00
I think my sleepers performed very well considering that the lack of national publicity that other auction cars enjoyed and the current economic situation but they all sold at the high end of their respective value ranges, proving that good quality cars (and trucks) will always command higher prices.
Closing Thought – I believe GM has sold over 200 or so of its Heritage Collection and I hope that this “garage sale” is over soon. On the bright side, I hope that the new owners of these GM refugees allow the cars to see the light of day again and hopefully we can all enjoy them at an upcoming automotive event or car show.
Attorney Bryan W. Shook is a devoted automotive enthusiast, but is also an experience litigator who devotes a large portion of his law practice to helping other collectors and hobbyists understand today’s market. Attorney Bryan W. Shook is a seasoned automotive collector and restorer and as such brings real world experience and firsthand knowledge to the table for his clients. Attorney Bryan Shook is available throughout the United States for consultation, advice, and information. If you’d like more information about this topic or would like to speak with Attorney Bryan W. Shook please email him at BShook@shooklegal.com.
Bid with knowledge. Buy with confidence – Vintage Car Law
2009 Barrett-Jackson – Palm Beach Auction – Cars to Watch “The Sleepers”
Barrett-Jackson – Palm Beach 2009 Auction
By: Bryan W. Shook, Esquire
Email: bshook@shooklegal.com
It’s that time again in sunny south Florida.The trucks are arriving as I type this delivering one gorgeous car after another. All told, over 700 cars will be sold this week at the “lifestyle” event that is Barrett-Jackson’s 7th annual Palm Beach collector car auction. As has been the norm for Barrett-Jackson auctions over the past five years or so, this will be a “No-Reserve” auction which means all cars will sell to the highest bidder regardless of price
Speed TV will be broadcasting 22hrs of live high-definition coverage of the event.
Although we are technically in a recession, I look for several of the auction lots to sell for strong money. Plenty has been written about the feature cars of the auction so I have chosen to focus this article on what I believe will be the best buys of the auction.
On Tuesday, April 07, 2009, I was fortunate enough to be able to spend some time “kicking the tires” and here is my list of vehicles to watch.
· 1920 Chevrolet Model T – 1 Ton (open cab) chassis truck (Lot # 678)
o This truck is coming out of the GM Heritage Collection and is in very nice shape. The truck shows some slight deterioration from sitting and appears to have been restored a number of years ago. Although it’s only sold on a Bill-of-Sale, I believe this will be a great buy. Where else are you going to find one?
· 1964 ½ Ford Mustang convertible (Lot #347)
o This car is extremely well presented and appears to be over restored. If you are looking for a rare color (Skylight Blue) and color keyed blue convertible top car this is the car for you. Although this is an original D-Code (289cu 4bbl) car with 4spd manual transmission, the engine has supposedly been replaced with a circa 1965 Ford 289cu engine. Bottom line is that this is a striking color combination on an extremely significant model year Mustang.
· 1972 Chevrolet C10 Cheyenne Short Bed pickup (Lot #32)
o This truck is as clean as ANY you’ll find. It supposedly features its original number’s matching 402cu big block engine and air conditioning. To say this truck is restored to a high level is an understatement. It is evident that true love went into this restoration and either this was an excellent original when the restoration was started or someone spend A LOT of money, not to mention time, during the restoration seeking out good quality original pieces.
· 1976 Chevrolet C10 Silverado Long Bed pickup (Lot #330.1)
o This is allegedly a 17,000 mile truck. The truck features a 454cu engine, air conditioning, power steering, power brakes and the optional gauge package. The cons on this particular truck are that it is a long bed model and it is painted, assumedly original, light saddle over neutral.
· 1994 Pontiac Trans Am 25th Anniversary Edition Convertible (Lot #58)
o This is an extremely rare 1 of 250 convertible 25th Anniversary Edition Trans Ams that is in very good, original condition. This car is officially 15 years old and looks great. The TA is powered by the corporate 5.7 liter (350cu) 275hp small block Chevrolet engine which is backed by a very fun 6spd manual transmission. The car is extremely clean with only minor road spray on the undercarriage and rear axle assembly. Overall, this vehicle represents an amazing opportunity to purchase a historical vehicle directly from GM. For more support please refer to my article below “‘Can’t Miss Investments, Even in this Economy’ 1982-1992 GM F-Bodys”
· 1999 Pontiac Trans Am 30th Anniversary Coupe – Daytona 500 Pace Car (Lot #616.1)
o This vehicle has it all, the LS1 engine, the signature blue anodized wheels, the white leather seats, removable roof panels (i.e. T-tops) … not to mention provenance directly from GM as an officially 1999 Daytona 500 Pace Car. Again, as stated above, this vehicle represents an amazing opportunity to purchase a historical vehicle directly from GM. For more support please refer to my article below “‘Can’t Miss Investments, Even in this Economy’ 1982-1992 GM F-Bodys” Did I mention this car is a WS6 optioned vehicle with the aggressively styled Ram Air hood and induction system?
The above list represents just a sampling of the vehicles offered at this year’s Barrett-Jackson, West Palm Beach, Florida Auction. For more information, be sure to visit their website at http://www.barrett-jackson.com.
Bid with knowledge. Buy with confidence.
Attorney Bryan W. Shook is a devoted automotive enthusiast, but is also an experience litigator who devotes a large portion of his law practice to helping other collectors and hobbyists understand today’s market. Attorney Bryan W. Shook is a seasoned automotive collector and restorer and as such brings real world experience and firsthand knowledge to the table for his clients. Attorney Bryan Shook is available throughout the United States for consultation, advice, and information. If you’d like more information about this topic or would like to speak with Attorney Bryan W. Shook please email him at BShook@shooklegal.com.
